D-Day

Well tomorrow is it. Or so we hope, although with the latest round of acrimony from the Clinton followers and campaign about the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee (is it just me or is that one too many committees in the mix?) decision about the Florida and Michigan delegates, ain't nuthin' certain at this point. [Of course the best part is all day long coverage of this nonsense that MSNBC did—even I am not THAT big of a political geek.]

Yes, Clinton won Puerto Rico, which was expected but the turn out was not good, so it really doesn't boost her argument that she is winning the popular vote (and everything I read says that argument requires quite a bit of fuzzy math). Regardless, her outlook tomorrow in Montana and South Dakota isn't likely to swing things much (if at all) for her.

So then the question becomes—when does Clinton back out (lots of conjecture here that she is already laying off staff, which her campaign denies) and after she backs out, how will she convincingly campaign for Obama.

There are many Clinton supporters who are, shall we say, somewhat less inclined to throw their support behind Obama. The idea is that Clinton will work to fix that. The problem lies in a) whether she really will and b) will it be believable. Right now, I hate to say that I have my doubts as to b. But I desperately hope that I am wrong.

Meanwhile, Obama has resigned from his church. I really don't see what this accomplishes. It strikes me as caving in to the lunatic righties, and it isn't likely to impress his followers or those thinking of voting for him. Maybe he just hoped that by quitting the church, Reverand Wright's remarks would become even more of a non-issue. Again, I have my doubts. The right is like a dog with a bone on this.

Is it really Monday again?

Poll Vault

Speaking of polls, the Pew Research Center's latest has Obama with a solid lead over Clinton (54 percent to 41 percent nationally). Last month, the two were about equal.

Meanwhile, we hope things will be winding down come next week, when Puerto Rico phones in its primary results on Sunday. (Burning question—Will Ricky Martin's endorsement of Clinton today give her the island's nod?) Tuesday the final two democratic primaries happen in Montana and South Dakota. And then it is all over but the shouting.

And day three of the McClellan lynching goes on. Scotty is all over the TV, appearing on The Today Show this morning and popping up with my buddy Olbermann tonight. 

While the White House may be puzzled by all this, what I am puzzled by is the near riot that apparently broke out in NYC when promoters of the Sex and the City movie oversold tickets to the premiere. Listen ladies, I am pretty darn excited about this movie—feminism be damned—but methinks you might need to rethink some of your priorities if you are willing to riot over a movie ticket. I love SJP and all the other ladies, but really?

Strange days indeed.

A Whole New Ballgame

"You see, the country has mood swings."

"Mood swings? Nineteen post-graduate degrees in mathematics, and your best explanation for going from a 63 to a 46 percent approval rating in five weeks is mood swings?"

"Well, I could explain it better, but I'd need charts, and graphs, and an easel."

You get a gold star if you can id what movie that dialogue comes from. Those lines seem especially apropos this morning after yesterday's wins for Team Clinton. While the actual delegate count is still a bit up in the air (Clinton won the Texas primary, but the Texas caucus is still undecided according to CNN—can someone explain THAT shit to me?), winning Texas and Ohio is a big deal and it keeps Clinton in the game for another inning.

Man I am FEELING the sports analogies this morning . . . 

Frankly I am excited. I don't want to have a decision yet between Clinton and Obama. (Hell, I can't make up my own mind yet.) While the GOP may try and play this prolonged nomination process for the left as only helping there side because the Dems are spending their money fighting each other and not the Republicans, I don't buy it. I think it is kick ass that we have such a close campaign and that the Democratic party is blessed to have two such talented candidates to choose from. Whichever person ends up clinching the nomination, the party wins as does the country.

Maybe it is just my venti skinny mocha talking, but dang I am pumped about the results this morning. Obama shouldn't be taking anything for granted. ("America isn't easy. America is advanced citizenship. You've got to want it bad, because it's gonna put up a fight.") And Clinton shouldn't be counted out.

Oh yeah, McCain cinched the Republican nomination. Yawn.

Up next—Wyoming caucuses for the Democrats on Saturday and Mississippi votes on the 11th. Then we sit tight until April 22 when the Pennsylvania primary takes place. This is another biggie and if Clinton pulls that one out then the delegate race gets even tighter.

It's All in the Details

As many suspected, Obama took Hawaii and Wisconsin. (And McCain took Washington and Wisconsin—see I give equal time!) What does this mean? I think it means that Clinton is in some serious trouble. But like her husband, being behind has suited her in the past. I don't think you can rule her out completely. But we can re-visit this conversation on March 5, after the primaries in Ohio and Texas. Those will surely determine Clinton's fate.

Of course, Clinton is already trying to fight back. Her speech after the announcements last night was heavy on the idea that Obama is about words and not actions. In a moment of prescience, Obama gave his longest victory speech yet (pundits clocked it at 45 minutes) and went into more details about things he would do as president in terms of policy.

It's a nice start, but he has got to step it up. A fine example of this is the recent beef recall. Clinton sent out a press release with a detailed, but perhaps not complete, list of things she would do as president to insure the safety of our food. (For those of you who don't know, some of the tainted meat apparently went to schools where it has already been consumed. Not good.) Obama issued a release as well, but it was far from as comprehensive as Clinton's and was really a mere statement. Dude that isn't going to cut it.

Listen, I get that Obama is most exciting when he uses speeches to fire up the masses and fill them with his special brand of hope. I am as much of a sucker for it as the next person. But as I have said repeatedly, he is going to have to start backing that up with some solid plans. No matter if Clinton or Obama gets the nomination and wins, we will be better off as a nation with either one of them running the country than we would be with McCain. Sorry, it is just what I believe. At the same time, I don't want the nomination to go to Obama and then have him decide to trot out his policies and Americans feel hoodwinked.

Clean Sweep

I just may have to get off my lazy ass and start posting over the weekend on occasion. Apologizes for the late posting—duty called—but I doubt any of you were completely at a loss without my words of wisdom.

Well, as you probably have heard by now, Obama swept the Democratic primaries and caucuses this weekend. I am sure this news will give him a boost come tomorrow in the Potomac Primaries. The two Republican primaries on Saturday were a draw—one going to Huckabee (Kansas) and the other to McCain (Washington) although apparently the Huckster says that one is too close to call for McCain. Whatever.

Meanwhile, the delegate count for Clinton and Obama couldn't be any closer. According to CNN, Clinton has 1,148 to Obama's 1,121. Talk about a nail biter. I have to admit I am fascinated at how close the two of them are. I know that I paid a fair amount of attention to the primary process during the 2004 election, but prior to that it either wasn't an issue (incumbent VP's running) or I was too young to care. Yup, 1992's Clinton vs. Bush was my first election. Ahh . . . the good 'ole days.

But enough about facts, you come here for hyperbole and supposition right?

Well, while the Huckster continues to stand firm in his continuing in the race, I still believe it is going to be McCain. Duh. And my gut says that Obama is going to pull it out from Clinton as well. Of course the last thing the GOP wants is for Obama to get the nomination because they can't go after him for the obvious reasons—his race. Of course they can't go after Clinton for the obvious reasons either—her gender—but they can AND WILL attack her for her husband and his record. For many people that will be all the ammunition they need.

What else . . . this David Shuster dust up about him saying the Clinton campaign is "pimping" out Chelsea Clinton. UGH. Listen, I don't like the word choice (I guess dude was trying to sound hip or relevant, who knows), but when it comes right down to it, is it any worse than some of the things the media has said in the past? Frankly, they weren't very kind to Chelsea Clinton when she was growing up in the White House. The girl went from a pre-teen to a teenager to a young adult during Bill Clinton's tenure as president. And I defy any of you out there reading to say they got through those years without many an awkward outfit/hair-do/photo.

Finally, let's all lift our glass of sparkling apple cider to Ms. Amy Winehouse for her Grammy wins. Now please, take your beehive and get some help. It would be a crying shame to waste all of that talent.

The Beat Goes On

Just because Super Tuesday has come and gone, does not mean this thing is over. Sorry, folks.

This Saturday, Kansas, Louisiana and Washington state will have GOP primaries. Saturday will also see Democratic contests in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington state and the Virgin Islands (go figure), followed by the Maine caucus on Sunday.

The next real biggie for Clinton and Obama comes on Tuesday with the so-called Potomac primary where Maryland, D.C and Virginia casting their ballots.

And I know you are probably sick and tired of my harping on this tax rebate thing, but another interesting point: one of the reasons some politicians were hesitant to give the rebate to the elderly and the disabled veterans was because they don't have a large amount of taxable income (Only about 20% of Social Security payments are taxed, I believe). So be forewarned, something tells me come tax time 2009, we will be paying for our rebates.

Interesting tidbit, rumor has it that McCain is in talks with Romney to have 'ole Mitt be the VP candidate. Wouldn't that addition just gloss up the Straight Talk Express?

Handy, Dandy Reference site

This link from CNN gives great concise information on the presidential candidates, the upcoming primaries and caucuses, the number of delegates each has already and much, much more!

I know you are all as excited by this as I am. (Thanks Wes!)